Policy Paper: Macro-Fiscal Implications of Health Care Reforms in Advanced and Emerging Economies Health care reform will be a key fiscal policy challenge in coming years in both advanced and emerging economies. This soon-to-be-published paper provides updated projections of public health spending and options to address the rising public cost of health care, drawing from country experiences in the past several decades. | | Fiscal Monitor Update: Strengthening Fiscal Credibility (January 2011)
The first quarterly update of the Fiscal Monitor—published on January 27—assesses recent fiscal developments, which show a greater divergence across countries. Sovereign risks are elevated and have increased in some cases since the publication of the Fiscal Monitor in November. Market pressures remain intense in Europe. Moreover, the U.S. and Japan have adopted new fiscal stimulus measures, slowing the pace of fiscal consolidation in 2011. The underlying fiscal outlook has also weakened in some emerging markets. Heightened market scrutiny and delayed fiscal adjustment make it even more essential for governments to signal clear commitment to long-term sustainability through more robust and specific medium-term consolidation plans. 
The Update complements the fall 2010 full issue of the Fiscal Monitor, which was presented in November to policymakers, market participants, academics, and the media in Beijing, Brussels, Kampala, London, and Tokyo. The fall 2010 Fiscal Monitor reviewed fiscal and debt market developments in advanced, emerging, and low-income countries with a special focus on the analysis of countries’ medium-term strategies. Special topics included the growth impact of various pension reforms; the fiscal implications of addressing the environmental impact of carbon-based fuels; and how revenues from value-added taxes can be increased. | FAD In The News The initial media coverage of the Fiscal Monitor Update publication yesterday has been extensive so far in the United States and Europe, including by Reuters, Bloomberg, AFP, Dow Jones, The Wall Street Journal Online, Xinhua, Agence France Presse, Europa Press, and EFE. Due to the time difference, evidence of media coverage further East was not yet available at the time this newsletter edition was closed.
Publication of the November 2010 Fiscal Monitor was widely covered by the media, including articles and newswires by Wall Street Journal Europe, Dow Jones, and Reuters, and interviews of Carlo Cottarelli on CNBC Europe and other networks. The media generally highlighted the projected sharp increase in debt ratios among advanced economies, but also the view that markets might be overreacting due to excessively pessimist sentiment.
The blog by O. Blanchard and C. Cottarelli “How to Bake a (Cr)edible Medium-Term Fiscal Pie” also proved popular in the blogosphere, particularly among financial websites and blogs. |
| IMF-Japan High-Level Tax Seminar for Asia and Pacific Countries (Tokyo on January 11–14, 2011) Conference on Fragile StatesLarge Fiscal Adjustments As advanced economies face major fiscal consolidation needs, a one-day conference organized by FAD analyzed past fiscal adjustment plans and their outcomes. Caroline Atkinson (Director, EXR) chaired a panel discussion comprising Alan Auerbach (UC Berkeley), Carlo Cottarelli (Director, FAD), Carmen Reinhart (Peterson Institute of International Economics), and Vito Tanzi (former Director, FAD). Participants presented case studies based on fiscal adjustment in G-7 countries and a broader cross-country analysis, identifying key factors underlying both failures and successes. The studies will be published as a book, “Chipping Away at Public Debt”(Wiley), in early 2011.
Recent Staff Position Notes 
"Lifting Euro Area Growth: Priorities for Structural Reforms and Governance” by C. Allard and L. Everaert with A. Annett, A. Chopra, J. Escolano, D. Hardy, M. Mühleisen, and B. Yontcheva. The note argues that the euro area needs to make better use of its labor resources and lift productivity in Southern Europe. It proposes a series of product and labor market reforms as well as fiscal initiatives and strengthened governance structures. Recent Working PapersE. Baldacci, S. Gupta, and C. Mulas-Granados discuss the appropriate fiscal policy mix in the aftermath of the “Great Recession” in their Finance & Development article Getting Debt Under Control—a topic they also analyze in their recent Working Paper “Restoring Debt Sustainability after Crises: Implications for the Fiscal Mix.”
In “A Status Update on Fiscal Exit Strategies” F. Bornhorst, N. Budina, G. Callegari, A.A. El-Ganainy, R. Gomez Sirera, A. Lemgruber, A. Schaechter, and J.B. Shin, review the medium-term fiscal consolidation plans of 25 countries.
In “A Historical Public Debt Database” A.M.A. Abbas, N. Belhocine, A.A. El-Ganainy, and M. Horton compile the first comprehensive historical public debt database (HPDD) covering gross government debt-to-GDP ratios for 174 countries, nearly the entire IMF country membership, and spanning a long time period. The database is publicly available on the Fiscal Monitor webpage. Technical Notes and ManualsTechnical Assistance Activities | Career OpportunitiesThe Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) seeks talented and dedicated professionals with a background in different areas of public finance, to work on macro-fiscal policy issues and to provide technical assistance advice to IMF member countries on public financial management, tax policy reform, revenue administration, and different expenditure policy issues. Vacancies in FAD for staff and long-term expert positions are posted on http://www.imf.org/jobs. FAD also seeks experts who are interested in occasional short-term (2-3 week) assignments; interested candidates may send their CVs to FADexperts@imf.org. |
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