Posted by Ismail Manik, consultant, World Bank Institute*
The case of Tajikistan is illustrative of a not too ambitious yet well-sequenced attempt at introducing a Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). The Ministry of Finance started initial work on an MTEF in 2000 but the effort did not have a major impact on improving budget planning. The rating from a recent PEFA assessment for the indicator PI-12, ‘Multi-year perspective in fiscal planning, expenditure policy, and budgeting’, is a D+. Another major problem was the fragmentation of the budget; for example the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Health controls only around 9 and 10 percent of their sectoral budgets,** respectively.
A PER performed in 2007 provides a realistic assessment;
"The full introduction of the MTEF will take many years, and will need to be accompanied by complementary reforms to public financial management, such as strengthening of treasury systems, auditing, monitoring and evaluation and payroll management. One of the important findings of the World Bank study on the implications of weak PEM capacity for the PRSP approach, is that PEM reform should be undertaken in a holistic manner: improving one link in the PEM system will not generate better budget outcomes if other links in the system are unreformed and remain weak (Andrews and Moon, 2003).*** The Government will need assistance to implement the MTEF, and complementary PFM reforms, from donors; in particular, it will need technical assistance for the MOF and the line ministries in the pilot sectors."
