Going Broke? Why Pension Reforms Are Needed in Emerging Economies?

Previously published in iMFdirect (The International Monetary Fund's global economy forum), by Mauricio Soto

We’re all getting older, and there’s no doubt that pension reform is a hot topic in the advanced economies. But it’s also critical in emerging economies.

Our analysis here at the IMF shows that across emerging economies pension spending is projected to rise as the population ages. On average, these spending increases are not that large. But reforms are needed to increase coverage of the system without making pension systems financially unsustainable over the long term.

 

IMF Technical Assistance: Positive Impact on the Ground

Posted by Camille Karamaga

Country leadership has been essential to the past and on-going success in implementing public financial management reforms in Liberia. But the IMF technical assistance seems to have played an important role, as acknowledged by the Liberian authorities in a video featured on the IMF external web.

Well coordinated assistance has been, and continues to be, provided by the IMF Fiscal Affairs department (FAD) and other development partners. FAD’s assistance, which is currently funded by the Swedish Development Agency (Sida) and the EU, relies on a resident advisor who provides intensive on-the-job capacity building and day-to-day guidance to support the ownership and sustainability of the reforms, in addition to regional activities funded by the Japanese government and routine visit from headquarters staff.

One of the lynchpins of the ongoing economic governance reforms has been the passage in 2009 of a new public financial management law, which along with its associated financial regulations, has re-established the legal basis for public financial transactions in Liberia, as portrayed in a recent blog post. As Minister Augustine Ngafuan stresses in the video, since 2007 FAD has assisted the authorities in designing and putting in place a modern legislative framework that will help Liberia manage its public finances for years to come.

IMF's Fiscal Monitor Update: Strengthening Fiscal Credibility

 

 On January 27, 2011, the IMF released an update to its flagship publication on fiscal issues: The Fiscal Monitor. We are posting here the beginning of the text of this update titled "Strengthening Fiscal Credibility". We provide at the end of this post, a pdf copy of the full text (and corresponding data tables), as well as a link to the relevant IMF web page.

 

Despite the improving global outlook, the pace of fiscal consolidation this year is slowing in some key countries. The United States and Japan are adopting new stimulus measures and delaying consolidation relative to the pace envisaged in the November 2010 Fiscal Monitor. The underlying fiscal outlook has also weakened in some emerging markets—among them are several that need to build larger fiscal buffers, particularly in the face of surging capital inflows, overheating, and possible contagion from advanced countries. By contrast, advanced economies in Europe are projected to continue tightening policies amid heightened market scrutiny in several countries. Altogether, sovereign risks remain elevated and in some cases have increased since November, underlining the need for more robust and specific medium-term consolidation plans.

Fiscal outturns in 2010 were slightly better than projected, but some large emerging economies underperformed

 
While advanced economies maintained expansionary fiscal policies on average in 2010, outturns were generally slightly better than projected in the November 2010 Fiscal Monitor. Revenue collection exceeded expectations across most major economies—both output growth and, in some countries, the responsiveness of revenues to output were larger than expected—and spending was lower (Table 1). Overall, the average deficit of advanced economies fell compared with 2009 by about 1 percentage point, to about 8 percent of GDP (0.3 percent better than projected). Excluding the impact of growth and financial sector support, the cyclically adjusted balance widened slightly. Deficits in Germany and the United States were lower than in the November Monitor, reflecting good revenue performance and lower spending—due in Germany to the strong labor market and in the United States to some legislative delays in approving spending and lower financial sector support. Euro-area countries that had targeted large fiscal consolidations generally succeeded in posting marked deficit reductions. Meanwhile, advanced economy gross general government debt continued to rise rapidly in 2010, topping 96 percent of GDP.

Fiscal Stimulus, Aussie style

Posted by Jason Harris[1]

 
The Australian economy escaped from the global financial crisis relatively unscathed. Growth continued almost unabated, the unemployment rate topped out at only 5.8 per cent, and there was no significant loss of productive capacity. In fact, even while the crisis continues, Australia’s major economic challenges centre around managing an economy at full-employment with emerging inflationary pressures and dealing with the structural changes associated with a resurgent terms of trade, issues that many other economies would look upon with envy.

One of the key factors behind this is the aggressiveness of the fiscal stimulus adopted in response to the crisis. This post will focus on the make-up and design of the fiscal stimulus, which was very much in alignment with the IMF’s adage of timely, targeted, and temporary. Going into the crisis, Australia could have been considered a prime candidate for collateral damage.  With a large current account deficit, and heavy reliance on global capital markets for wholesale bank financing, Australia was exposed to the freezing of financial markets. Further, as the crisis developed, there was a sharp slowdown amongst Australia’s major trading partners, and a large decline in the hitherto booming terms of trade.  But Australia avoided the sharp contractions experienced by most other advanced economies.  With the exception of one quarter of slightly negative growth, GDP continued to grow throughout 2008 and 2009.

IMF Fiscal Affairs Department's Newsletter (October 2010)

 

October 2010	Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) of the International Monetary Fund
Useful Links Ten Commandments Blog PFM Blog FAD at a Glance Contacts in FAD Previous newsletter   Coming Soon Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal policy is beginning a gradual shift from supporting demand to reducing deficits, but at different speeds. In addition to its regular analysis of fiscal developments and trends, the Fiscal Monitor, to be published on November 4, will have a special focus on countries' medium-term strategies to put their public finances on a sounder footing. Other topics include the growth impact of various pension reforms; the fiscal implications of addressing the environmental impact of carbon-based fuels; and how revenues from value-added taxes can be increased. A comprehensive Historical Public Debt Database (HPDD): This FAD database covering nearly the entire Fund membership and an exceptionally long time period will be publicly available through the Fund's website on November 4, together with an accompanying working paper (S. A. Abbas, N. Belhocine, A. El-Ganainy, and M. Horton: "Historical Public Debt Database", forthcoming).   Publication Updates    IMF Publications ·         Financial Sector Taxation: The IMF's Report to the G-20 and Background Material    more...   IMF Working Papers ·         Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields ·         Restoring Debt Sustainability after Crises: Implications for the Fiscal Mix ·         Public Capital and Growth ·         The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies: A Review of Evidence for Developing Countries    more...   IMF Staff Position Notes ·         Long-Term Trends in Public Finances in the G-7 Economies ·         Default in Today's Advanced Economies: Unnecessary, Undesirable, and Unlikely    more...   External Publications ·         Effect of Development Assistance on Domestic Health Expenditures ·         Sovereign Risk: Are the EU's New Member States Different ·         International Experience with Fiscal Rules ·         The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Consolidation in Area Euro Countries ·         Macroeconomic Effects of Greater Competition in the Service Sector    more...   Technical Notes   and Manuals ·         Evaluating Government Employment and Compensation ·         Health Care Spending Issues in Advanced Economies ·         Performance Measurement in Tax Administration ·         Managing the Shadow Economy ·         Autonomy in Tax Administration and the Revenue Authority Model ·         Government Cash Management: Its Interaction with Other Financial Policies    more...		Taxing the Financial Sector: A Report to the G-20 Leaders and Conference in Paris One controversial issue addressed by the IMF over the past months has been the "fair and substantial contribution" of the financial sector to meet the costs of the crisis. Working with the Monetary and Capital Markets and Research Departments, FAD prepared a report for the G-20 Leaders (the final report), which attracted wide media and public interest. The report and other European proposals were discussed at a high-level conference on financial sector taxation held in Paris on September 16. It was attended by senior officials from 35 European central banks and ministries of finance. IMF Deputy Managing Director, Mr. Portugal opened the conference. Fiscal Policies: Effective Strategies for Stability and Growth During the IMF's 2010 Annual Meetings, FAD organized a panel discussion on the fiscal challenges ahead as the world economy exits the crisis. The panelists were Prof. A. Alesina (Harvard University), Mr. C. Cottarelli (FAD Director), Mr. P. J. Gordhan (Minister of Finance, South Africa), Prof. S. Johnson (MIT), Mr. J. Ligi (Minister of Finance, Estonia), and Mr. P. Solbes (former Minister of Finance, Spain). Ms. Z. Minton-Beddoes (Economic Editor of The Economist) moderated. The discussion focused on the need for fiscal adjustment and credible medium-term plans to reduce debt ratios, the impact of fiscal consolidation on short-term economic growth, the implications of fiscal policy actions of advanced economies on emerging markets, and the need to foster a coordinated policy response at the G-20 level. Managing Natural Resource Wealth FAD, the IMF Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, and the Natural Resource Charter organized a seminar during the IMF's 2010 Annual Meetings on "How Societies Can Best Manage Wealth from Natural Resources." The panel discussion included Timor-Leste Minister of Finance Emilia Pires; Andres Velasco, former finance minister of Chile; and Guillermo Ortiz, former central bank governor of Mexico as moderator. World Bank Iraq Senior Advisor, Yahia Said and FAD Assistant Director, Michael Keen also joined the discussion. FAD In The News The Financial Times (August 11, 2010) published an op-ed by Olivier Blanchard and Carlo Cottarelli with the title "The great false choice, stimulus or austerity." In this piece, the authors discuss the issues involved in restoring fiscal sustainability while maintaining support for the recovery. The contrarian views held in the Staff Position Note "Default in Today's Advanced Economies: Unnecessary, Undesirable, and Unlikely" (see comment in this newsletter) sparked attention in the media. See, for example The Wall Street Journal ( "IMF Warns Countries of Debt Risks, Dismisses Idea of Greek Default" by Bob Davis, September 2). Bloomberg radio (Bloomberg surveillance, September 2) featured an interview with Carlo Cottarelli on this topic. The evidence and recommendations in the note "Long-Term Trends in Public Finances in the G-7 Economies" (see comment in this newsletter) was also extensively covered, including by the Financial Times ("Richer or poorer: Taxing times for debt-laden advanced economies" by Chris Giles, October 7), and The New York Times ("Monetary Fund Warns G-7 on Debt Levels" by Sewell Chan, October 7). Recent Staff Position Notes "Long-Term Trends in Public Finances in the G-7 Economies", by C. Cottarelli and A. Schaechter reviews the generalized rise of public debt levels in the G-7 economies in the decades since the 1970s, when debt became the ultimate shock absorber: rising in bad times and not coming down in good times. It discusses the unsustainability of these trends going forward and offers policy options to address this problem. "Default in Today's Advanced Economies: Unnecessary, Undesirable, and Unlikely," by C. Cottarelli, L. Forni, J. Gottschalk, and P. Mauro examines the likelihood that worsening public finances lead to a debt default in certain advanced countries. It argues that debt defaults in preceding decades have been triggered primarily by spiraling debt service costs, while the current challenges in some European advanced economies stem from large primary deficits. The paper concludes that default would make little sense for these countries: the problem is not the debt servicing burden, but the primary deficit. Recent Working Papers In "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields," E. Baldacci and M. S. Kumar explore the impact that fiscal deficits and government debt had on long-term sovereign bond yields during the last 30 years in 31 advanced and emerging market economies. It finds that increases of one percentage point of GDP in deficit and government debt lead to an increase in real interest rates of around 20 bps and 5 bps, respectively. In "Restoring Debt Sustainability after Crises: Implications for the Fiscal Mix," E. Baldacci, S. Gupta, and C. Mulas-Granados analyze the experience of 99 advanced and developing economies in restoring fiscal sustainability after crises. They confirm earlier findings on the key importance of current expenditure cuts, but they also find that revenue-raising measures play an important role in large fiscal consolidations. Technical Notes and Manuals "Evaluating Government Employment and Compensation" by B. Clements, S. Gupta, I. Karpowicz, and S. Tareq discusses criteria for evaluating government employment and compensation, and options for reducing government's wage costs. "Health Care Spending Issues in Advanced Economies" by E. Jenkner and A. Leive. Both public and total health spending have increased substantially in the past decades—a trend expected to continue, driven by ageing, rising incomes, and technological change. The note offers guidance for analyzing the evolution of public health expenditure and evaluating policy options in advanced and emerging market economies. "Revenue Administration: Performance Measurement in Tax Administration" by W. Crandall explains performance management and its measurement, how tax administrations apply it, key tasks in implementing a performance management system, and country experiences. "Revenue Administration: Managing the Shadow Economy" by B. Russell discusses the shadow economy and its measurement, as well as actions which revenue agencies can take to manage it. "Government Cash Management: Its Interaction with Other Financial Policies" by M. Williams offers guidance on policy, institutional and practical issues for governments looking to develop a cash management function. It discusses the implications of active cash management for other functions such as debt management, monetary policy, and financial market development. Technical Assistance Activities During July–September 2010, FAD provided technical assistance to 37 IMF member countries and multi-country organizations through 42 projects. Career Opportunities The Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) seeks talented and dedicated professionals with a background in different areas of public finance, to work on macro-fiscal policy issues and to provide technical assistance advice to IMF member countries on public financial management, tax policy reform, revenue administration, and different expenditure policy issues. Vacancies in FAD for staff and long-term expert positions are posted on http://www.imf.org/jobs. FAD also seeks experts who are interested in occasional short-term (2-3 week) assignments; interested candidates may send their CVs to FADexperts@imf.org.
To unsuscribe, send an email to FADUnSubscribe@imf.org For new readers who would like to subscribe to the newsletter, send an email to FADSubscribe@imf.org. Copyright © 2010 International Monetary Fund    All Rights Reserved

 

 

Now that’s Fiscal Policy, Mate!

Posted by Jason Harris[1]

Australia has one of the strongest fiscal positions in the developed world, with the budget projected to return to surplus in 2012, and net debt projected to peak at 6% of GDP. [2] The relative consensus between the main political parties on the long-standing medium-term fiscal strategy has played a key role in delivering these outcomes. The strong starting position ahead of the global fiscal crisis has given Australia the flexibility to engage in relatively aggressive stimulus policies, without endangering long-term sustainability.

Sustainability Reporting: Can the Triple Bottom Line Thrive in the Public Sector?

Posted by Dimitar Vlahov

It’s common knowledge that today’s global economy is facing multiple challenges and imbalances. From the recent financial crisis, to concerns about distribution of wealth, to the ever-more-dangerous clashes between economy and environment, there are many reasons to pause and examine the whole system. Some experts have suggested that a large chunk of this ill condition can be attributed to the same cause – the problem of bad performance measurement. Businesses and governments alike, the argument goes, have been employing short-sighted measures of success that do not account for all medium- and long-term consequences of their organizations’ activities. Therefore, they need to expand their reporting to include social and environmental indicators of performance, and not just financial ones. With a better warning system, many of the present-day issues could be mitigated or avoided altogether. This post serves as a basic introduction to this approach and its main applications to date.

The “Sarkozy Commission” Critiques GDP as a Measure of Well-being

Posted by Dimitar Vlahov

It has become increasingly common over the last decade or so to come across reports of various studies comparing standards of living or satisfaction with life across countries, as in this article or this one. Such rankings come in multiple flavors, depending on the concept to be measured and the methodology employed. Some – such as the Human Development Index, the Quality of Life Index, and the Genuine Progress Indicator – rely solely on the crunching of already existing national statistics and data from academic publications. Others tend to utilize direct surveys or a combination of direct surveys and observed data.  Examples of the latter type include the Happy Planet Index, the Legatum Prosperity Index, or Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness idea (a fascinating story which I encourage you to google further).

Despite the multitude of such initiatives and approaches, however, the academic community, governments and other policy makers continue to use and cite GDP as the main indicator of economic prosperity. Needless to say, we’re all constantly exposed to news reports on the latest GDP figures, coupled with all-important projections for the next quarter or year.

But is GDP good enough as a measure of overall societal well-being? If not, what’s wrong? The president of France, Mr. Sarkozy, has displayed a lot of interest in researching and answering these questions. In February 2008 he asked renowned economists Joseph Stiglitz, Amartya Sen and Jean-Paul Fitoussi to assemble “The Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress” (CMEPSP) with a few goals in mind: to point out the limitations of GDP as an indicator of economic performance and social progress; to suggest additional information that could be used to construct better measures of social progress; and to address the feasibility and potential usage of alternative measurement tools. The Commission responded in the fall of 2009 with a publicly-available 291-page report (attached below).

Maintain Fiscal Support, but Devise Credible Exit Strategies, Says the IMF's Fiscal Monitor

Posted by Michel Lazare.

On November 3, 2009, the IMF published the second issue of its Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor.

This Fiscal Monitor stresses that while, fiscal policy will continue to provide substantial support to aggregate demand in most countries this year, and is projected to remain supportive of economic activity in advanced countries in 2010, government debt in advanced G-20 economies is projected to reach 118 percent of GDP in 2014.

To get debt below 60 percent by 2030 will require raising the average structural primary balance by 8 percentage points of GDP over 2010-20 and then keeping it there for a further decade.

This is not a trivial amount of fiscal consolidation to say the least. The FIscal Monitor, however, considers that this could be achieved by a combination of non-renewal of stimulus measures; a freeze in real per capita spending excluding pensions and health; reforms to keep the growth of pension and health spending in line with that of GDP; and tax increases averaging about 3 percentage points of GDP for advanced G-20 countries.

Most PFM experts would probably agree that such a sizable fiscal consolidation over such a long period also requires a sound PFM system and pretty solid fiscal institutions.

Fiscal Implications of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis -- First Elements for an Exit Strategy

Posted by Michel Lazare

In virtually all countries, the global financial crisis has resulted in a significant deterioration of the fiscal position owing in part to a decline in fiscal revenues. How necessary they are to cushion the effect of the crisis and jumpstart recovery, fiscal stimulus packages have also contributed to a further deterioration in fiscal position and an accumulation of public debt. All this points to a possible fiscal solvency issue over time. Fiscal positions needs therefore to be monitored and the further accumulation of public liabilities needs to be carefully considered as the crisis unfolds, through the formulation and implementation of an exit strategy.

Against this background and "amid signs that global economic crisis is stabilizing, the Group of Eight (G-8) advanced economies has asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to do the necessary analytical work to help governments prepare “exit strategies” to unwind the huge stimulus packages that have been deployed to combat the crisis."

The IMF published a few days ago, a Staff Position Note on the "Fiscal Implications of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis" (Download Spn0913[1] ) which already contains some first elements of reflection on exit strategies. For instance the introduction and overview of the note (see full text below) indicates that four components are particularly important in formulating the exit strategies:

Therefore, there is an urgent need for governments to clarify their exit strategy to ensure that solvency is not at risk. In formulating such a strategy, four components are particularly important: (1) fiscal stimulus packages, where these are appropriate, should not have permanent effects on deficits; (2) medium-term frameworks, buttressed by clearly identified policies and supportive institutional arrangements, should provide a commitment to fiscal correction, once economic conditions improve; (3) structural reforms should be implemented to enhance growth; and (4) countries facing demographic pressures should firmly commit to clear strategies for health and pension reforms. While these prescriptions are not new, the weaker state of public finances has dramatically raised the cost of inaction.

Minister of Finance of Uganda, Dr. Ezra Suruma Honoured as Best Finance Minister in Africa in 2008

Posted by Davina Jacobs

In the February 11 edition of the Uganda newpaper Sunday Monitor online, Tom Magumba reports that Uganda's Finance Minister Dr Ezra Suruma has been honoured as the best finance minister in Africa for the year 2008 by The Banker magazine.

The Banker, established in 1926, is a monthly UK based global intelligence financial magazine that investigates, exposes and passes expert comment on critical developments in the global banking sector

The Banker's ninth Year of the Awards were sponsored by Qatar Financial Centre. The award results from detailed questionnaires sent to banks. This year 740 banks from about 150 countries were involved.

An article in the January edition of the Banker magazine described Dr Suruma as a minister who has overseen a year of strong growth in the face of a series of economic head winds. According to the Magazine, Uganda scored highly having kept inflation under 7 per cent from 6.8 per cent in 2007. Banks remained well capitalized with an average ratio of liquid assets to deposits of 51 per cent - which saw foreign banks flock into the market - and deposits increased by 26 per cent.

At the award ceremony, Dr Suruma described this award as a surprise recognition but also a vote of confidence in the future of the economy and a reward to his staff and the government for its hard work.

He is reported as saying "I am humbled by this award coming to a former peasant in the hills of Kabale now honored as Africa’s best finance minister."

Are Governments Obliged to Bail Out their Central Banks?

Posted by Ian Lienert

With a worldwide financial crisis in full swing, central banks are being called upon to provide support to an ailing financial sector. In some cases, central bank credit is being provided directly to financial institutions. What are the risks that the central bank itself will not be able to support the financial cost of these operations? Will the government have to step in and bail out its central bank? Is there any chance that the central bank will become bankrupt?

An IMF Working Paper published in February 2008 examines government legal obligations to recapitalize central banks when their balance sheets became seriously impaired. The paper indicates that even in cases where the government is nominally responsible for maintaining the financial strength of the central bank, it may do so only in a cosmetic fashion. In a number of countries, governments have not provided central banks with financial support on a timely basis, leaving them excessively reliant on seignorage to finance their operations and/or forcing them to abandon monetary policy objectives.

Creating Fiscal Space for Infrastructure: The Case of Tanzania

By Richard Hughes

After a decade or more in which it took a back seat to provision of basic services such as education, health and social protection in economic development theory and practice, infrastructure in back on the economic policy agenda in both developed and developing countries. In the United States and other advanced economies, kickstarting infrastructure investment is being seen in the context of the current crisis as a way to both deliver a timely, temporary and targeting fiscal stimulus while, at the same time, raising their long-run growth prospects. In Africa the work of the UK’s Africa Commission and the World Bank’s Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic have brought into stark relief the extent to which a lack of access to basic infrastructure services such as clear water, electricity and roads is constraining current welfare and future growth potential of the region.

But how do countries meet the sizable fiscal costs of infrastructure investment? A recently IMF Working Paper (Download wp08256.pdf ) looked at question of how to create sustainable fiscal space for infrastructure investment in Tanzania, a country with one of the least developed infrastructure networks in the region. However, its findings and conclusions are relevant for other low-income countries in Africa and elsewhere that face large gaps between their infrastructure needs and their access to long-term investment financing.

Norway’s Government Pension Fund–Global

Posted by Thomas Ekeli

A recent post by Mauricio Villafuerte and Jon Shields described newly established guidelines for sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). One of the best known SWFs is the Norwegian Government Pension Fund–Global, formerly known as the Government Petroleum Fund. The Petroleum Fund was established in 1990 as a fiscal policy tool to support a long-term management of the petroleum revenues. Renaming the Fund the Government Pension Fund–Global in 2006 was part of a broader pension reform, highlighting also the Fund’s role in facilitating government savings necessary to meet the rapid rise in public pension expenditures in the coming years. However, the Fund is not earmarked for pension expenditures.

Strengthening Political Economy Analysis to Address the Resource Curse

Posted by Teresa Dabán

photo by Ellie Sandercock (CC)

The chances of resource-rich countries to avoid the resource curse hinge on the existence of sound institutions. While several initiatives have emerged to promote the transparency and sound management of natural resource revenues (NRR)— including IMF’s Resource Revenue Transparency Guide and the EITI, there is still a need to develop an overall framework for the assessment of NRR-related political economy and governance challenges. Against this background, the Bank has launched a project to develop a framework to assess and promote good governance in each of the stages of the “value chain” of NRR, from their extraction to their use, and incorporate political economy issues in the dialogue with resource-rich client countries. To refine such a framework, and concretize the timeframe for its implementation, the Bank held a workshop on October 16, 2008. The workshop revealed that the adoption of the usually proposed mechanisms to mitigate NRR-related governance challenges raises complex issues.

World Bank—Sovereign Debt Management Forum (October 27-29, 2008)

Posted by Brian Olden

The World Bank hosted the Fourth Sovereign Debt Management Forum between October 27–29, 2008 in its Washington, D.C. headquarters. Despite the ongoing turmoil in world financial markets, the event was well attended, with representatives from over 55 advanced OECD, emerging, and low-income countries (LICs), as well as representatives from international institutions, including the IMF and the EU.

The forum was very timely, given the current market turmoil, and naturally much of the discussion centered around the impact of the crises on economies, in general, and on debt management operations, in particular.  Much of the focus was on what the role of debt managers will be in helping to mitigate the effects of the crises on economies in the short and medium-term.

The Santiago Principles: Generally Accepted Principles and Practices for SWFs

Posted by Mauricio Villafuerte and Jon Shields

Do you still wake up in the middle of the night, worried that your country is about to be gobbled up by a rampaging, politically-inspired Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) from the other end of the world? Or do you dream that the current financial crisis is going to be solved by massive, daredevil rescues by charitable white knights from Sovereign Wealth Funds? In either case, maybe it’s time to rest peaceably again. Because 23 countries with SWFs agreed, in October 2008, on a set of “generally accepted principles and practices” (GAPP) that would commit them to operate purely on commercial principles. And, as part of this commitment, SWFs abiding by the GAPP would make their objectives, governance structures, and investment practices visible to all.

Are Government Debts Really Irresponsible?

Posted by Andy Wynne

Disclaimer: Andy Wynne, an independent consultant,  is the editor of the International Journal of Governmental Financial Management; the point of view he expresses in the following post is not necessarily shared by either PFM Blog or the IMF.

In recent years it has been assumed that fiscal discipline should be one of the main objectives of public financial management. Thus, for example, the World Bank cites aggregate fiscal discipline as the first of the three much quoted objectives for public expenditure management.1/ The European Union has set targets of 3% for annual fiscal deficit and 60% for government debt. Several countries are adopting fiscal responsibility acts which limit the fiscal deficits which their governments are allowed to apply when setting their annual budgets.

The financial crises in Mexico (1994-95), Southeast Asia (1997) and Russia (1998) brought extensive economic dislocation, fiscal hardships and liquidity problems for the governments of these countries. The debt crisis for the governments of many developing countries over the last two decades had a similar effect and made them dependent on policy advice from the World Bank and IMF. Having suffered these problems it is a question of once bitten, twice shy. Many governments now accept the need to constrain their public expenditure to avoid future debt problems. However, in doing so they may not undertake much needed investment in public infrastructure which could be essential to achieve optimal economic growth in the future.

Does Public Sector Efficiency Matter to Growth? Some New Evidence

Posted by Francois Michel

In a recent paper published in Public Choice, Konstantinos Angelopoulos, Apostolis Philippopoulos and Efthymios Tsionas provide a welcome addition to the empirical growth literature by enlarging the traditional focus on fiscal size to introduce measures of public sector efficiency. Two such measures of public sector efficiency are used.

The first one follows the “output-to-input” (or, as it might be more appropriately denominated, outcome-to-input) approach used by Afonso, Schuknecht, and Tanzi in two famous papers ("Public sector efficiency: an international comparison," Public Choice Volume 123, Number 3-4, June 2005; and "Public Sector Efficiency: evidence from new EU members states and emerging markets," ECB Working Papers number 581, January 2006) governements’ socio-economic outcomes are related to resources used, proxied by public sector spending, for major functions—limited by data availability, in the article’s case, to four basic roles of administration, education, infrastructures, and economic stabilization. The sample consists of 64 developed and non developed countries during four five-year periods between 1980 and 2000.

The second measure of government efficiency to which the model is applied is obtained by applying a stochastic production frontier approach as discussed in Lovell and Kumbhakar’s book (2000). The sample consists here of yearly data between 1995 and 2000 for 52 countries.